Welsh Electoral Surveys 2001/2003
Richard Wyn Jones, Anthony Heath, Rebecca Jones,
Roger Scully, Katarina Thomson
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In Brief
This project will conduct two surveys of the Welsh electorate in 2001 and 2003 and will provide a detailed picture of trends in the complex matrix of national identities, attitudes to the political system and the dynamics of party competition in contemporary Wales. The project is one of a linked and comparative suite of projects in the Programme which also explore national identity and constitutional change in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Context
Contrary to many expectations it is the Welsh experience of devolution that has thrown some of the key issues surrounding the government's programme of constitutional reform into the starkest relief. The devolution referendum of 1997 showed an electorate deeply ambivalent about the prospect of an Assembly. This ambivalence was further underlined by the relatively low turnout in the National Assembly elections in May 1999 and has raised significant questions about the legitimacy of the whole venture. These elections also saw a remarkable upsurge of support for Plaid Cymru which scored its best ever results.
This upsurge in electoral support for nationalism needs to be viewed in the context of a longer-term development of Welsh civic and political institutions which signal a sense of Welsh national identity distinct from 'Britishness'. At the same time, though, and paradoxically, countervailing forces have called into question the bases for maintaining such 'national' distinctiveness: large population inflows from the rest of the UK and the continued, long-term, secular decline of the Welsh language. Wales, in other words, plays host to a particularly complex mosaic of national identities.
Objectives
The central objective of the project is to examine and analyse developments in patterns of national identity in Wales in the wake of devolution. It will:
• Use public opinion surveys in 2001 and 2003 to explore the socio-economic and cultural bases of socialisation into particular national identities in Wales (both singular and overlapping)
• Investigate the relationship between participation and legitimacy in the context of the public's understanding and knowledge of the division of powers between the UK Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales.
• Explore the dynamics of party competition in post-devolution Wales by reconsidering previous standard sociological explanations of partisan choice in Wales and by developing an understanding of the relationship between voting choices at the various levels of governance in Wales
• Coordinate the survey research with parallel studies in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland so that rigorous comparative analysis across the UK's territories may be carried out.
Research Plan
The design of survey questionnaires is integrated with that for the other surveys in the Programme on England, Northern Ireland and Scotland to achieve the objective of rigorous comparison; it also allows for detailed analysis of public opinion on issues specific to the situation in Wales. The questionnaires will be fielded in both 2001 and 2003 - to allow for exploration of change over time - in stand-alone surveys. These will involve face to face interviews with a sample of around 1,000 adults selected at random from the Postcode Address File. The survey is identical methodologically and technically to the parallel surveys on England, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
** Additional Funding **
The project has secured additional funding from ESRC to conduct a feasibility study on the establishment of a regular Welsh Life and Times Survey. The feasibility study will explore with potential stakeholders in government, the media and the private sector in Wales options for building from the two surveys planned in 2001 and 2003 towards a wider, annual survey analogous to the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey and British Social Attitudes/Scottish Social Attitudes.
| Principal Contact |
Dr Richard Wyn Jones
Institute of Welsh Politics
Department of International Politics
University of Wales Aberystwyth
Penglais
ABERYSTWYTH
SY23 3DB
rlj@aber.ac.uk
Tel: 01970 622336
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| Project Members |
Professor Anthony Heath
Department of Sociology
University of Oxford
Rebecca Jones
Institute of Welsh Politics
Department of International Politics
University of Wales Aberystwyth
Roger Scully
Institute of Welsh Politics
Department of International Politics
University of Wales Aberystwyth
Mrs Katarina Thomson
National Centre for Social Research
Londo
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| Duration of Project: |
1 January 2001 - December 2004 |
| Amount of Award: |
£222,509
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| ERSC Project Number: |
L219 25 2043
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